If he works for Roush Racing, he’s probably in severe hassle. Of the Musketeers, who had been so dominant in 2005, the most effective motive force positive to make the Chase is Matt Kenseth, who just rattled off two straight wins and this Week is returning to the song wherein he won his first race of ’06 (Fontana). Mark Martin is hanging directly to 10th place by way of his fingernails and could lose out. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards are darkish horses at quality, and Jamie McMurray is nowhere to be determined. Meanwhile, Kasey Kahne, clearly the item of many females’ affection, is idling androgynously in the 11th region. Those three men — Kahne, Biffle, and Edwards — are the handiest three drivers currently out of doors, the pinnacle ten who are not mathematically eliminated from the Chase. But an entire mess of drivers inside the standard ten should drop out with terrible races over these next two weekends. I will say that Jimmie Johnson, Kenseth (who have clinched their slots), and Kevin Harvick (who has an eighty-factor hole on the fourth region) are safe. Let’s take a look at the other possibilities:
Kyle Busch: Currently: 4th location, 402 factors back. Busch has a career victory at Fontana and is excellent at the 2-milers in trendy. And even as he hasn’t received at Richmond, he’s in no way finished out of doors the top five there, either. He’s as near a lock as you could get. Verdict: IN.
Jeff Gordon: Currently: 5th region, 408 factors lower back. You by no means quite know what you will get from Jeffy Jeff, but he seemed excellent on the Michigan-Miller simply weeks in the past, finishing 2nd. THe will probably have an awesome piece this weekend, and he might also want it because he’s completed the thirtieth or worse within the final 3 Richmond events, consisting of a fortieth this summer season. Content for the win this Week, and the strain is off subsequently. Verdict: In.
Denny Hamlin: Currently, the sixth region, 429 factors again. The Rookie of the Year has been incredible on the two-milers (a 9th and 12th this year) and completed 2nd in his first Nextel Cup race at Richmond. Anything can happen. However, I think Hamlin’s extraordinarily safe. Verdict: IN.
Jeff Burton: Currently: 7th region, 435 points back. Burton is a testimony to the reality that fortunes trade quickly in the Nextel Cup. Burton turned into a lock for the Chase these days as a few weeks ago. However, a popped engine at Michigan despatched him hurtling down the ranks. He led many laps on closing weekend at Bristol, but while push got here to shove, he faded and finished ninth. The blown engine in the Irish Hills may additionally have been the first-class factor to appear to this group because it made their paintings even more difficult on this weekend’s car. The RCR Chevys have been wonderful at downforce tracks these 12 months, so I’d assume Burton to post a top-10 and give up several questions. He’s passable at Richmond, even though I wouldn’t take him to win. Verdict: IN.
Tony Stewart: Currently: 8th region, 443 factors again. The protecting Series champ had posted four immediate top-10s to get over a midseason swoon. However, he went out like a lamb at Bristol Ultimate Saturday, coming 22nd after qualifying 5th. Stewart likely had the second one-high-quality vehicle at Fontana manner returned in February; however, he blew an engine, so it is a little frightening, but his flat-song genius will serve him properly at Richmond subsequent Week, in which he posted three consecutive pinnacle-seven finishes. Verdict: IN.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Currently in 9th place, 448 points returned. Considering how nicely he ran in this season’s two Michigan races and the fact that he gained the Richmond spring race, this is a no-brainer. Verdict: IN.
Mark Martin: Currently: 10th place, 450 points lower back. I assume Martin might be in trouble. It’s a disgrace because he is nicely steady this season; however, starting in early June, he hit a patch that saw him fail to reach the pinnacle of the thirteenth location on five consecutive occasions. Lately, it is been one-race-on, one-race-off for Martin, and his 28th at Bristol last Week was a killer. He’s been given a ninety-factor bulge on Kahne, a 251-factor lead over Biffle, and a 261-point gap on Edwards. He’s a steady two-miler motive force, and I’d anticipate peering him play it conservatively and attempt to complete around the 10th place this Week. But he has had a few bad Richmond races during the last few years, and at the same time, as he is as smooth as they get, a man at the back of him can rip off two splendid activities and topple this apple cart. Verdict: OUT.
Kasey Kahne: Currently: 11th area, 540 points again. Kahne genuinely stored himself through finishing 12th at Bristol; it is no longer certainly one of his great tracks, and the fact that he ought to get 48 points on Martin became big. Now, I’d have to say Kahne is a favorite to beat Martin on each of the subsequent occasions; he finished fourth (to Martin’s ninth) in advance this year at California and posted his first professional win at Richmond in 2005 (although he did have engine troubles and completed four laps down there this year). If someone’s going to do it, that is going to be the fellow. I think he’s going to do it. Verdict: IN.
Greg Biffle: Currently in 12th place, 701 points back. Biffle is incredible at Fontana and Richmond; he had the excellent vehicle inside the field here lower back in February but had his engine pop, and he has been given four consecutive Richmond finishes of eighth or better. But this can be a ways to come. He can win each of these races, and if the men do not ruin right before him, he will pass over the Chase. Bummer. Verdict: OUT.
Carl Edwards: Currently: 13th region, 711 points back. Edwards is also awesome at the 2-miles (what Roush automobile is not? Positioned your hand down McMurray); however, it is not as fab at Richmond. I do not suppose he is a hazard. Verdict: OUT.
Last Week: I failed to watch it. However, the Saturday night race at Bristol became precise to me over again, perhaps because I pimp it so mercilessly. I had Matt Kenseth as the winner and took Kenseth in a head-to-head matchup. That way, for the Week, we profited 1. Forty-one gadgets (while placing 1. Five units in danger every Week); for the season, we’ve had profitable weeks 70% of the time, consisting of seven of the remaining 8, and we’ve profited a total of sixteen.01 gadgets.
Note: The following odds are preliminary; I’ll exchange them before the race on Sunday while the net bookmakers put up their boards. I’ll also make a head-to-head selection for the Week while the odds are online.
Take Matt Kenseth (+700), 1/sixth unit. Is it likely that Milwaukee Matt will win a third direct Nextel Cup event? Hell, no. But can he? Hell, yes. He has been first-rate at this song kind over the past several seasons: his common end at Michigan because 2002 is an incredible 6.1, and he has come 7th and primary in his final two Fontana activities. Kenseth can pass balls out because he has already clinched his spot inside the Chase, and there is no purpose to suppose that this rather smooth driving force won’t at the least contend.
Take Greg Biffle (+800), 1/sixth unit. Biffle has one alternative and one option handiest: win the following races. And he can do it. He became the exceptional car here this spring and had a big lead while his engine went bad, so you can guess him based on the “song-owes-him” concept. And even as Biffle took a step backward at a Michigan tune where he gained consecutive occasions not too long ago (he finished 7th and fourth, which, believe it or not, is a step returned), he is still the unquestioned grasp while the tracks get wider. The vehicles can slide into the turns. While many of the men in front of him within the standings should play it conservatively, Biffle has to move.
Take Kyle Busch (+1200), 1/6th unit. As I stated above, the more youthful Busch is pretty much secure inside the Chase, and a top-5 finish all, however, nails it down for him this weekend. But he is gunning for more. Fontana is the website online of Busch’s first Nextel Cup win, exactly twelve months in the past. I also recall that he was streaking up through the sector in Michigan two weeks ago when something on his car broke, and he ate the wall. To me, this means the #5 crew has something figured out, and if they could hold the auto collectively, they could win right here all over again.
